With just 11 matches remaining in the league phase of the ongoing IPL 2026, it is an interesting time in the playoffs race as eight teams are still in contention.

Also read: IPL 2026 playoffs schedule

Mumbai Indians (MI) and Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) have already been eliminated from qualification. On Friday night (May 15), LSG dealt a big blow to Chennai Super Kings’ (CSK) chances by beating them by seven wickets.

Here are the IPL 2026 playoffs scenarios explained for each of the eight teams in contention.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) (16 points, No. 1, Remaining matches: 2)

Sitting on top of the table, defending champions RCB have the second-highest probability, at 96.1 per cent, among the eight teams to make the playoffs. RCB have two matches to play and one win ensure their qualification. However, if they lose both the games, they could be eliminated as GT, SRH, RR and PBKS can achieve more than 16 points. If the Rajat Patidar-led Bengaluru franchise win both matches, they will be assured of a top-two finish.

Gujarat Titans (GT) (16 points, No. 2, Remaining matches: 2)

Among the eight teams in contention, GT have the highest probability, at 98 per cent, to make progress to the playoffs. They have two games left and like RCB, they too need one win to qualify. However, if they lose both, it could come down to net run rate (NRR) to decide on qualification as PBKS, CSK and RR can also reach 16 points or more if they win their rest of the contests. Two wins will put GT in the top-two at the end of the league phase.

Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) (14 points, No. 3, Remaining matches: 2)

SRH have a probability of 70.3 per cent to make the playoffs. Currently at number three in the table, the Hyderabad franchise need to win both their remaining matches to keep their qualification hopes in their own hands as GT, RCB, RR and PBKS can also ended up with 16 or more points. However, if PBKS and RR lose their remaining matches, then SRH can go through with 14 points too.

Punjab Kings (PBKS) (13 points, No. 4, Remaining matches: 2)

With their chances at 48.8 per cent, PBKS can seal a spot in the playoffs with two wins in their last two outings. That will take them to 17 points. However, there are concerns with their current form as they have lost five in a row. PBKS can also go through with 13 points depending on other results.

Rajasthan Royals (RR) (12 points, No. 5, Remaining matches: 3)

RR’s chances are at 51.6 per cent. They can qualify for the playoffs by winning their last three games. Even with one win and 14 points, they can progress if PBKS and CSK don’t win their remaining two matches each.

Chennai Super Kings (CSK) (12 points, No. 6, Remaining matches: 2)

CSK’s chances before their game against LSG were at 47 per cent but after their loss on Friday night, the probability is now at 28.4 per cent. The defeat has severely dented their chances. Even if they win their remaining two matches and get to 16, that might not be enough as four teams can cross that mark. However, with 14 points too, they can qualify, if PBKS and RR lose their remaining matches, and DC go down to KKR, and the Kolkata team don’t win more than two of their three games. In such a scenario, CSK will become the fourth team on the table to qualify, along with RCB, GT and SRH.

Delhi Capitals (DC) (10 points, No. 7, Remaining matches: 2)

DC have just 3.1 per cent probability of featuring in the playoffs. They can reach a maximum of 14 points if they win their remaining matches. That too might not be enough as their NRR (-0.993) is worst among the eight teams in contention.

Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) (9 points, No. 8, Remaining matches: 3)

KKR’s chances are at 3.6 per cent for the playoffs. A win in their remaining three matches will take them to 15 points. However, that may not help their cause as they need to depend on other results to progress. GT, RCB, SRH, PBKS, RR and CSK are the six teams that can go beyond 15 points and that affects KKR’s chances.