India Women arrive at the DP World Wanderers Stadium in Johannesburg on April 22 facing elimination from a series they were expected to compete in. South Africa lead 2-0 and one more win seals the trophy.

The venue shifts from Durban to the high-altitude Bullring and everything about this third T20I feels like a crossroads moment for a touring Indian side that has shown glimpses without producing results. The prediction and what both sides need to do to get the result they want is worth laying out properly before the toss.

IND-W vs SA-W: Where both sides stand and what the series has shown so far

South Africa have been clinical across two games. Laura Wolvaardt has struck back-to-back fifties and Sune Luus has complemented her beautifully at the top of the order making chasing look straightforward on both occasions.

In the first game they chased with 17 balls to spare. In the second they chased with 5 balls to spare despite India’s Shafali Verma scoring 57 off 38 and debutant Anushka Sharma contributing 28.

Chloe Tryon took a three-wicket masterclass in the second game and the South African bowling has been equally impressive restricting India’s middle order consistently across both matches. The Proteas are a settled and confident unit playing at home with the series in their pocket.

India’s problem is the same one that has defined this tour. Top order starts that are not being converted into the kind of totals that give their bowlers something to work with. Shafali found her groove in Durban but the middle order crumbled.

Mandhana and Harmanpreet Kaur both need to contribute in the same game and the bowling attack needs wickets at the top to have any chance of defending a target against a South African batting lineup that has chased everything down comfortably so far.

IND-W vs SA-W: The Wanderers Pitch Report

The move from Durban to Johannesburg introduces a significantly different playing environment. The Wanderers is the high-altitude Bullring and the pitch offers true bounce and genuine pace that is different from the conditions in Durban.

In the thin Johannesburg air fast bowlers get more carry and seamers who hit the deck hard are rewarded. For India that means Renuka Singh Thakur and Arundhati Reddy will have more to work with than they did in Durban.

For the batting it means the strokemakers thrive when they commit to their shots and the hand-eye coordination Shafali Verma brings at the top of the order suits this surface as much as any venue in world cricket.

IND-W vs SA-W: Key players

Wolvaardt is the most prized wicket for India. Her ability to anchor a chase while maintaining a high strike rate has been the difference in both games. Taking her wicket early is India’s most important task with the ball regardless of what total they set. Shafali Verma On the Wanderers surface India’s best weapon is with the bat. Her power and hand-eye coordination against pace on a true bouncy pitch is the kind of matchup that can swing a game in the first six overs.

IND-W vs SA-W Predicted Playing XIs

South African Women Tazmin Brits, Sune Luus, Laura Wolvaardt (c), Annerie Dercksen, Anneke Bosch, Chloe Tryon, Nadine de Klerk, Sinalo Jafta (wk), Ayabonga Khaka, Tumi Sekhukhune, Nonkululeuko Mlaba.

India Women Smriti Mandhana, Shafali Verma, Anushka Sharma, Harmanpreet Kaur (c), Jemimah Rodrigues, Richa Ghosh (wk), Deepti Sharma, Arundhati Reddy, Shreyanka Patil, Renuka Singh Thakur, Sree Charani.

IND-W vs SA-W: Head to Head record and match prediction

India hold a 10-8 head-to-head advantage from 21 T20Is and the statistical win probability gives them a great chance of winning the third game. Historically India have shown the ability to win under pressure in knockout moments and the change of venue provides the kind of fresh start the batting unit needs. South Africa’s momentum is the heaviest counter-argument and it should not be underestimated.

prediction: India Women to win and keep the series alive.